VALUASI PROYEK HULU MINYAK DAN GAS BUMI MENGGUNAKAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW DAN REAL OPTIONS. Studi Kasus : Proyek Pengembangan Lapangan Minyak AAX Wilayah Kerja NW NTX
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Date
2016-09-29
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Abstract
The objectives of this study are to valuing the interest in the project development of the oil "AAX" working area "NW NTX" which is currently held by "AX" limited and "STX" Limited as contractor under the terms of Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Indonesian government, represented by Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities. Based on the rule of law "AX" limited and "STX" limited refund 10% interest in the project to the government to offer to the local government through local enterprises. Sluggish global economic downturn and low oil prices lately caused many upstream oil and gas company to reduce or even stop investing. Therefore do the valuation of 100%, 10% and 90% the interest value of this project that has been in the development stage. Valuation using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method version of project guideline which is used to the submission of PoD and modified version use the long-term forecast of crude oil prices issued by OPEC and considered additional risk based on project conditions and is completed with real options methods (binomial lattice and static real options) to determine the potential up-side / downside interest value. The Value of the interest in the project is positive, with a binomial lattice model of real options to generate the lowest value. These results indicate that very low oil prices of late are considered by oil producing countries (particularly members of OPEC) and other market participants are not formed by the balance of supply and demand naturally.
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Binomial Lattice, Discounted Cash Flow, Real Options